According to ATTOM’s newly released Q2 2024 Special Housing Risk Report, California, New Jersey, and Illinois once again had the highest concentrations of the most at-risk markets in the country, with significant clusters in the New York City and Chicago areas, as well as inland California. Conversely, less vulnerable markets were predominantly spread across the South and Midwest.
The analysis also noted that the second-quarter trends, based on factors like gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment, showed that nearly half of the U.S. counties most vulnerable to potential downturns were in California, New Jersey, and Illinois. Similar to previous periods in recent years, these states continued to feature prominently on the list of areas at higher risk.
ATTOM’s Q2 2024 housing impact report mentioned that the county-level housing markets on that list included seven in the New York City area, five in the Chicago metro region, and 12 in various parts of California, mostly inland. The remaining counties were spread across the South, as well as other parts of the Midwest and Northeast.
Also, according to the report, on the opposite end of the risk spectrum, nearly half of the markets considered least likely to decline were located in Virginia, Wisconsin, and Tennessee. These included four in the Washington, DC area, and three each in the Richmond, VA, and Nashville, TN metro regions.
ATTOM’s latest analysis stated that of the 51 counties deemed least vulnerable to housing market issues in the second-quarter report, 23 were in the South, 15 were in the Midwest, 11 were in the Northeast, and only two were in the West. This assessment was based on a review of 589 counties.
In this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q2 2024 Special Housing Risk Report to reveal the top 10 most vulnerable U.S. housing markets. Those include: Madera, CA; San Joaquin, CA; Butte, CA; Henry, GA; Kaufman, TX; Humboldt, CA; Solano, CA; Passaic, NJ; Merced, CA; and Shasta, CA.
#1 – Madera, CA
- 56.1% of income needed to buy
- 5.1% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 756 properties with foreclosure filings
- 7.5% June 2024 unemployment rate
#2 – San Joaquin, CA
- 62.1% of income needed to buy
- 4.7% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 864 properties with foreclosure filings
- 6.4% June 2024 unemployment rate
#3 – Butte, CA
- 46.99% of income needed to buy
- 6.8% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 969 properties with foreclosure filings
- 5.9% June 2024 unemployment rate
#4 – Henry, GA
- 45.4% of income needed to buy
- 9.9% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 726 properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.4% June 2024 unemployment rate
#5 – Kaufman, TX
- 46% of income needed to buy
- 8.1% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 930 properties with foreclosure filings
- 4.8% June 2024 unemployment rate
#6 – Humboldt, CA
- 52.1% of income needed to buy
- 5.1% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 623 properties with foreclosure filings
- 5.1% June 2024 unemployment rate
#7 – Solano, CA
- 57.2% of income needed to buy
- 5.0% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 735 properties with foreclosure filings
- 5.1% June 2024 unemployment rate
#8 – Passaic, NJ
- 65.3% of income needed to buy
- 4.3% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 840 properties with foreclosure filings
- 5.8% June 2024 unemployment rate
#9 – Merced, CA
- 52.4% of income needed to buy
- 5.0% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 977 properties with foreclosure filings
- 9.4% June 2024 unemployment rate
#10 – Shasta, CA
- 41.2% of income needed to buy
- 7.1% of properties underwater
- 1 in every 658 properties with foreclosure filings
- 5.4% June 2024 unemployment rate
The report stated that counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates.
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