Which Local Housing Markets Would Be Most Impacted by the GOP Tax Plan?

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This post was updated Dec. 18, 2017, to reflect final updates to the bill, most notably the change in the cap for the mortgage interest rate deduction from $500,000 to $750,000.

The Republican tax proposal unveiled last week includes two changes to the income tax structure that could potentially have significant impacts on homeowners, and by extension the housing market.

We’ve created two heat maps to illustrate which local housing markets could have the most homeowners impacted by these changes.

Counties most impacted by reduced mortgage interest rate deduction

The first proposed change involves the mortgage interest rate deduction, often touted by many in the industry as an icing-on-the-cake advantage of homeownership. The proposal calls for a reduction in the amount of mortgage interest that can be claimed as a deduction for federal income taxes. Now, homeowners can deduct interest paid on up to $1 million worth of home loans, but under the GOP proposal, homeowners would only be able to deduct interest paid on up to $750,000 worth of home loans.

Nationwide, nearly 99,000 single family home and condo purchases so far in 2017 have involved a mortgage higher than $750,000. That represents 3.9 percent of all home purchase loans so far in the year. The county-level heat map below shows the percentage of home purchase loan originations so far in 2017 where the loan amount was above $750,000 in each county, providing a ballpark estimate of what share of the housing market would be affected if this portion of the tax plan is enacted.

Among 2,022 counties included in this analysis and at least 50 home purchase loans so far in 2017, those with the highest share of loan originations above $750,000 were New York County (Manhattan), New York (63.8 percent); San Francisco County, California (58.0 percent); Nantucket County, Massachusetts (57.3 percent); San Mateo County, California (55.2 percent); and Marin County, California (50.o percent). Among those same 2,022 counties, those with the highest number of purchase home loan originations above $750,000 so far in 2017 were Los Angeles County, California (9,197); Santa Clara County, California (5,543); Orange County, California (4,450); Maricopa County, Arizona (3,723); and King County, Washington (3,715).

Counties most impacted by cap on property tax deduction

The second proposed change in the GOP proposed income tax plan that impacts homeowners is a new cap on how much homeowners can deduct for property taxes. Under the proposal, homeowners can only deduct up to $10,000 in property taxes from their federal income taxes.

The county-level heat map below shows the share of single family homes and condos in each county where the most recent property tax bill available was more than $10,000.

Among the 1,731 counties analyzed, those with the highest share of homes with property taxes above $10,000 were Westchester County, New York (73.4 percent); Luna County, New Mexico (68.7 percent); Rockland County, New York (60.0 percent); Mathews County, Virginia (54.4 percent); and New York County (Manhattan), New York (52.5 percent). Among those same counties those with the highest volume of homes with property taxes above $10,000 were Nassau County (Long Island), New York (176,946); Los Angeles County, California (165,078); Suffolk County (Long Island), New York (155,592); Bergen County, New Jersey (126,096); and Harris County (Houston), Texas (125,792).

 

 

Please contact us if you have questions about the underlying data referenced in this article, or would like to have access to that data in the form of custom reports, API or bulk files.

53 Responses to “Which Local Housing Markets Would Be Most Impacted by the GOP Tax Plan?”

November 10, 2017 at 3:08 pm, ATTOM: GOP Tax Plan Will Mostly Impact Luxury Housing Market - Florida Property Preservation Services | Texas Property Preservation said:

[…] The luxury real estate market will be most impacted by the Republican tax proposal unveiled last week, according to a recent analysis from ATTOM Data Solutions. […]

Reply

November 23, 2017 at 6:06 am, Democratic Voters Lose Out Under the GOP Tax Plans | Stories World said:

[…] In most markets, this affects few taxpayers since few home prices exceed that threshold. But data from ATTOM Data Solutions, which tracks property information, show that provision could hurt one-fifth or more of homebuyers […]

Reply

November 23, 2017 at 5:17 pm, The Big Blue Losers in the GOP Tax Plans – The Atlantic | | All Breaking News said:

[…] In most markets, this affects few taxpayers since few home prices exceed that threshold. But data from ATTOM Data Solutions, which tracks property information, show that provision could hurt one-fifth or more of homebuyers […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:02 pm, Here's An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill | ValuBit said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:07 pm, Here’s An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill – Earths Final Countdown said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:10 pm, Here's An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill | ValuBitNews said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:14 pm, Here's An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill | Newzsentinel said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:16 pm, Here's An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill | StockTalk Journal said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:27 pm, Here’s An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill – Novus Vero said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:29 pm, Here’s An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill | Investing Daily News said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:41 pm, Here’s An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill | Real Patriot News said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 8:43 pm, Here’s An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill – Independent News Media said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 9:00 pm, Here's An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill – Wall Street Karma said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 9:29 pm, Here’s An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill – The Deplorable Patriots said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 10:17 pm, Here's An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill | ProTradingResearch said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 18, 2017 at 11:00 pm, Here's An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill - Telzilla said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 19, 2017 at 12:04 am, Here’s An Interactive Map Of Which Housing Markets Get Hit The Most By The GOP Tax Bill – The Conservative Insider said:

[…] convinced they have the votes required to pass their tax reform legislation this week, the folks at ATTOM Data Solutions took a look at which housing markets will be most impacted by new limitations on mortgage interest […]

Reply

December 21, 2017 at 2:59 pm, Tax Reform - Reference Page | Luxury Valley Homes Scottsdale said:

[…] Which Local Housing Markets Would Be Most Impacted by the GOP Tax Plan? The new tax code includes two changes to the income tax structure that could potentially have significant impacts on homeowners, and by extension the housing market. […]

Reply

December 21, 2017 at 9:20 pm, Tax reform 'going to hurt' New Jersey home values, analysts say said:

[…] ATTOM Data Solutions says nearly 4 percent of home sales in New Jersey this year involved mortgages of $750,000 or more. It says property tax bills exceed $10,000 on more than one of every four single-family homes and condos in the state – more than 630,000 households that will be clipped by deductibility limit, without even counting people’s state income taxes. […]

Reply

December 22, 2017 at 3:10 am, New Jersey Tax reform 'going to hurt' New Jersey home values, analysts say - USA NEWS said:

[…] ATTOM Data Solutions says nearly 4 percent of home sales in New Jersey this year involved mortgages of $750,000 or more. It says property tax bills exceed $10,000 on more than one of every four single-family homes and condos in the state – more than 630,000 households that will be clipped by deductibility limit, without even counting people’s state income taxes. […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 8:01 am, Tax Reform & Housing: A Reference Guide | Erica Slater Marshall - Realtor said:

[…] Which Local Housing Markets Would Be Most Impacted by the GOP Tax Plan? The new tax code includes two changes to the income tax structure that could potentially have significant impacts on homeowners, and by extension the housing market. […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 12:46 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q | ValuBitNews said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 12:52 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q | ValuBit said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:00 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q – Wall Street Karma said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:01 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q - Telzilla said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:02 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q - Political American said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:13 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q – Novus Vero said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:14 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q | Newzsentinel said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:17 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q – Earths Final Countdown said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:19 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q | StockTalk Journal said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:20 pm, Christie directs all NJ towns to accept prepaid property taxes said:

[…] ATTOM Data Solutions statistics show that property tax bills alone exceed $10,000 on roughly 25 percent of single-family homes and condominiums in New Jersey. […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:40 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q – Independent News Media said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 1:49 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q | Real Patriot News said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 2:17 pm, Tax Plan Jitters Cause Sudden Collapse In Manhattan Apartment Prices In 4Q | ProTradingResearch said:

[…] under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive maps from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

December 27, 2017 at 9:11 pm, New Jersey Christie directs all NJ towns to accept prepaid property taxes - USA NEWS said:

[…] ATTOM Data Solutions statistics show that property tax bills alone exceed $10,000 on roughly 25 percent of single-family homes and condominiums in New Jersey. […]

Reply

December 28, 2017 at 4:33 pm, New Tax Law Could Hurt New and Middle-Class Homebuyers | The California Report | KQED News said:

[…] Contra Costa County, only 17.5 percent of home purchase loans this year were over $750,000, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. In Solano County this year, just 26 new home loans were over that amount. But in San Francisco, […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 6:37 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll – Earths Final Countdown said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 6:47 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll | ValuBitNews said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 6:50 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll | Investing Daily News said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 6:59 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll – Wall Street Karma said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 7:17 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll | StockTalk Journal said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 7:27 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll | WarMachines.com said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 7:56 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll | Real Patriot News said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 8:06 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll – The Conservative Insider said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 8:17 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll | ProTradingResearch said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 03, 2018 at 8:20 pm, NYC Apartment Sales Collapse 25% In Q4 As Trump Tax Plan Takes Its Toll – TradingCheatSheet said:

[…] coming under pressure should come as little surprise as we noted the following interactive map from ATTOM Data Solutions last week which perfectly illustrated just how concentrated mortgages over $750,000 are in a […]

Reply

January 04, 2018 at 3:31 pm, Tax Reform & Housing: A Reference Guide (Part 2) said:

[…] Which Local Housing Markets Would Be Most Impacted by the GOP Tax Plan? The new tax code includes two changes to the income tax structure that could potentially have significant impacts on homeowners, and by extension the housing market. […]

Reply

January 09, 2018 at 11:04 pm, Best Arlington Homes – Here’s How the Tax Bill Affects the Real Estate Market said:

[…] about 3.9 percent of home loans exceed $750,000, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. That figure varies in Long & Foster’s markets along the East Coast, from sub-1.0 percent in […]

Reply

January 10, 2018 at 10:20 pm, Westchester, Home of America’s Highest Property Taxes, Braces for a Hit – i24news said:

[…] The tax changes hit Westchester — just north of New York City and home to many Wall Street executives — especially hard. Only $10,000 of state and local taxes can be deducted on federal returns, potentially raising the income-tax burden for the 73 percent of Westchester homeowners whose local levies exceed that amount, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. […]

Reply

January 11, 2018 at 1:44 am, Westchester, Home of America's Highest Property Taxes, Braces for a Hit - The Money Street said:

[…] The tax changes hit Westchester — just north of New York City and home to many Wall Street executives — especially hard. Only $10,000 of state and local taxes can be deducted on federal returns, potentially raising the income-tax burden for the 73 percent of Westchester homeowners whose local levies exceed that amount, according to ATTOM Data Solutions. […]

Reply

January 21, 2018 at 10:03 am, Forecast for the 2018 Housing Market - How bad can it get? said:

[…] of our partners, ATTOM Data Solutions, analyzed the impact and found it would have affected 99,000 home purchases or 3.9 percent of home […]

Reply

February 21, 2018 at 2:21 pm, Tax reform on Real Estate Market – Keller Williams Westland Realty said:

[…] Which Local Housing Markets Would Be Most Impacted by the GOP Tax Plan? The new tax code includes two changes to the income tax structure that could potentially have significant impacts on homeowners, and by extension the housing market. […]

Reply

March 07, 2018 at 6:04 am, Tax Reform Reference Guide | Mortgage Geek said:

[…] Which Local Housing Markets Would Be Most Impacted by the GOP Tax Plan? The new tax code includes two changes to the income tax structure that could potentially have significant impacts on homeowners, and by extension the housing market. […]

Reply

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