According to ATTOM’s newly released Q2 2023 Special Housing Risk Report, New Jersey and Illinois have the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country, with the biggest clusters in the New York City, Chicago and Philadelphia areas. The report noted that the South, along with other parts of the Northeast, are generally less exposed to market woes.
The report also noted that the second-quarter patterns – derived from gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures and unemployment – revealed that New Jersey and Illinois had 23 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential drop-offs. According to the report, those concentrations dwarfed other parts of the country amid a time of significant uncertainty when the U.S. housing market was rebounding from a period of flat or falling values.
ATTOM’s Q2 2023 housing impact report mentioned that the 50 counties at the top of the most vulnerable list included eight in and around New York City, six in the Chicago metropolitan area and three in or near Philadelphia. The report also mentioned that another six were scattered through northern, central and southern California, while a majority of the rest were in Indiana and along the East Coast.
Also, according to the report, at the other end of the risk spectrum, the South and two New England states had the highest concentration of markets considered least likely to decline.
The report noted that 18 of the 51 counties considered least vulnerable to housing-market problems from among the 574 included in the analysis were in the South, while 17 were in the Northeast. Meanwhile, just 11 were in the Midwest, with five in the West. (A total of 51 counties made the list of least at-risk because of a tie in the rankings.)
ATTOM’s latest report stated that Virginia had six of the 51 least at-risk counties, including five in the Washington, DC, metro area (Alexandria, Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun and Prince William), while Massachusetts had five, including three in the Boston area (Middlesex, Norfolk and Suffolk), and four were in Tennessee, including three in the Nashville metro (Davidson, Rutherford and Williamson).
In this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q2 2023 Special Housing Risk Report to reveal the complete list of the top 10 U.S. counties least at-risk of housing market declines. Those include: Chittenden County, VT; Benton County, AR; Fairfax County, VA; Prince William County, VA; Shelby County, AL; Cass County, ND; Middlesex County, MA; Brown County, WI; Rutherford County, TN; and Sarpy County, NE.
The report stated that counties were considered more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and local unemployment rates.
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