Mortgage Rates Webinar: How Low Can They Go, and What’s the Impact?

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This webinar features in-depth insight on the impact of mortgage rates from co-presenters, Todd Teta, Chief Product & Technology Officer for ATTOM Data Solutions, and Eric Fox, Vice President of Statistical Modeling, Analysis & Research Development for Veros.

Click here to listen to this webinar covering loan origination trends, the history of mortgage rates, and a VeroFORECAST update, which includes home price outlook, market conditions impacting appreciation, top performing markets, and external events impacting forecasts.

In this webinar, Todd points to a few key residential loan volume indicators based on ATTOM’s most recent loan origination data, including:

  • Mortgage rates came down in Q2 2020 to around 3% for refinances and under 3% for purchases, driving refinance demand way up.
  • 69M Refis were the highest in 7 years, up 126% YoY and representing 62% of all loans (highest since Q2 2013).
  • The share of Purchases slowed significantly, down 28.8% (lowest since Q2 2013).

 

Todd notes that in Q2 2020, refinance volumes were consistent across geography, indicating refi opportunities were available to most despite different equity situations; purchase volumes were heavily constrained by sales volumes due to closures; and HELOCs down 25% from last year primarily due to a pullback from lenders. According to Todd, for Q3 2020, ATTOM expects to see higher volumes, purchase originations rebounding as markets re-opened and the FHA delayed fee increases.

Todd also provides an overview of historical mortgage rates according to ATTOM’s data, and provides three top takeaways:

  • Mortgage rates are at historic lows and 15-20M existing loans are decent refi candidates, driving high refinance demand through 2021.
  • Several factors could increase rates (Fed MBS purchases, debt, GSE capital rules, conservatorship release), but we don’t expect much movement and rates should stay around 3% thru 2021.
  • However, these factors will drive second-half 2021 volumes down (25% YoY decrease).

 

As the one-stop shop for premium property data fueling innovation, ATTOM provides analytics-ready data for real-world applications. ATTOM blends property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties, multi-sourced from more than 3,000 U.S. counties. ATTOM’s property data fuels growth across many industries to help drive decisions while delivering data in a variety of flexible customer solutions, including Data-as-a-Service (DaaS), property data APIs and bulk data licensing.

This webinar also features key insight into forecasting and real estate prices from Veros’ Eric Fox. According to Eric, the two most important ingredients in residential real estate are loan volumes and mortgage interest rates, while the key considerations for forecast accuracy include time horizon, property location, property type, price tier and other important variable models.

In this webinar, Eric provides examples of key predictor variables and presents an in-depth look at the current state of the market, while noting that according to Veros, home prices will continue to climb despite the pandemic, based on the VeroFORECAST. Eric also uncovers the top 10 strongest markets over the next 12 months, as well as the top 10 least-performing markets over the next 12 months. In conclusion, Eric discusses the external events impacting forecasts, including COVID-19, actual market performance and Hurricane Andrew and the resulting market impact.

Veros is an innovator in risk management and collateral valuation services, provider of natural disaster data insight, and forecaster of home price trends. Veros is the go to source for comprehensive property valuation and risk assessment solutions for mortgage lenders, servicers, rating agencies and the investment community, both private and government sponsored. Veros is committed to providing the valuation and collateral risk management solutions to help our clients meet the demands of complex industry regulations, as well as quickly and successfully adapt to the evolving mortgage landscape for profitable business results.

Want to learn more about how ATTOM’s property data and Veros’ valuation services and forecasting insight is helping businesses understand and address the state of the market and where it’s headed?

Click here to listen to the entire webinar.

Please contact us if you have questions about the underlying data referenced in this article, or would like to have access to that data in the form of custom reports, API, Bulk File or DaaS.

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