As we slowly exit the pandemic, how will the distressed housing market respond? This ATTOM Data Solutions webinar addresses this highly anticipated event by providing an in-depth analysis of potential areas at risk, including a review of historical foreclosure data trends, zombie foreclosures, delinquency rates, the CARES Act mortgage forbearance program and more.
During this webinar, Jennifer dives into the data with an overview of one of the key housing economic indicators – historical foreclosure trends. This metric presented looks at foreclosure starts and REOs, or completed foreclosures, going back to 2005, offering insight into the numbers of cases and properties taken by lenders.
Jennifer also provides an analysis of how zombie foreclosures may impact the housing market. She notes that according to the data, zombie property counts continue to drop as the federal foreclosure moratorium remains in place across nation; however, foreclosures are expected to rise once the moratorium is lifted, and that increase will likely be tied to the pace of economic recovery around the U.S.
Also during this webinar, Rick Sharga offers his expert insight on other housing economic indicators, and notes the key differences between today’s market and the Great Recession, including: 1) superior loan quality; 2) government and industry intervention; 3) the nature of the recession; 4) market dynamics; and 5) homeowner equity.
Rick explores this notion by providing an overview of mortgage delinquency trends going back to 2004, and notes that serious delinquencies are at record highs. He also states that 5 percent of mortgages are in forbearance and provides a review of servicing portfolio volume in forbearance by investor type over time.
Other key metrics Rick presents during this webinar include:
- Forbearance Request Peaks (as percent of servicing volume)
- Forbearance Extensions & Re-Entries (by stage)
- Forbearance Exits Success Rates (by reason)
- GDP: Record Drop/Record Rebound
- Jobs Recovery Rates (compared to previous recessions)
- Hardest Hit Industries
- Homes Sales & Inventory Trends
- Interest Rates & Price Appreciation
- Commercial Real Estate
- FHA Delinquencies
- Rental Market
In conclusion, this webinar features trends that show the housing market surge should continue into 2021, driven by demographics, low mortgage rates, and pandemic-accelerated trends. Home prices will continue to rise until builders ramp up and existing homeowners are comfortable listing their properties, and default activity will increase, but is unlikely to reach the levels seen during the last cycle. The data also suggests that commercial markets could see higher than usual default activity, while FHA loan portfolios are most vulnerable to potential default, and regions with high concentrations of delinquent FHA borrowers could see market conditions change significantly. As well, markets with high concentrations of single-family rental properties could be at risk due to government eviction bans. The most likely scenario is a gradual re-starting of foreclosure proceedings in the Fall, then activity based on individual state timelines.
ATTOM’s robust property data is leveraged by customers to innovate in a variety of industries, including Real Estate, Insurance, Mortgage, Marketing, Government and Academia. By utilizing ATTOM’s robust property data, ATTOM clients not only create innovation but gain that competitive advantage within their industries. End-users of the data include developers, data scientists, risk managers, investors, policymakers and analysts.
ATTOM is the one-stop shop for premium property data fueling innovation, ATTOM provides analytics-ready data for real-world applications. ATTOM blends property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard and neighborhood data for more than 155 million U.S. residential and commercial properties, multi-sourced from more than 3,000 U.S. counties. ATTOM’s property data fuels growth across many industries to help drive decisions while delivering data in a variety of flexible customer solutions, including Data-as-a-Service (DaaS), property data APIs and bulk data licensing.
RealtyTrac, the nation’s largest published database of properties in all stages of foreclosure, serves as a source of below-market and off-market inventory for real estate investors, and for agents who work with investors. RealtyTrac’s comprehensive set of online foreclosure auctions and pre-foreclosure records help identify distressed homeowners who would benefit from selling their property instead of losing it to foreclosure. The database provides property characteristic and valuation data, schools, crime and other neighborhood reports.
Want to learn more about these key housing market metrics and the data driving the decisions?
Click here to listen to the entire webinar.