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According to ATTOM’s newly released Q4 2022 Special Housing Risk Report, inland California, Illinois, New Jersey, and Delaware continued to have some of the highest concentrations of the most-at-risk markets in the country. The report shows the housing markets with the biggest clusters were in the New York City and Chicago metropolitan areas, while the southern and midwestern states remained less exposed.

The analysis found the fourth-quarter patterns – based on gaps in home affordability, underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment – revealed that New Jersey, Illinois, and California had 31 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to potential declines around the U.S. According to the report, that was roughly the same as the 28 more-at-risk markets that were in those states in Q4 2021.

Also according to the report, the 50 most at-risk included seven in the Chicago metro area, five in and around New York City, three in or near Cleveland, OH, and 13 spread through northern, central, and southern California; while the rest were clustered mainly in other parts of the East Coast, including two of the three counties in Delaware.

ATTOM’s latest analysis also found that at the other end of the risk spectrum, the South, Midwest, and western areas outside California continued to have the biggest concentration of markets considered least vulnerable to falling housing markets.

In this post, we dig into the data behind the ATTOM Q4 2022 Special Housing Risk Report to reveal not only the top 10 U.S. counties most at-risk of housing market declines, but also the data that landed them in the top 10:

Kent County, DE

  • 39.3% of income to buy
  • 8.8% underwater
  • 0.2% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 4.7% unemployment rate

Butte County, CA

  • 51.6% of income to buy
  • 6.5% underwater
  • 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 4.4% unemployment rate

Passaic County, NJ    

  • 59.6% of income to buy
  • 6.4% underwater
  • 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 3.8% unemployment rate

Atlantic County, NJ   

  • 38.1% of income to buy
  • 9.5% underwater
  • 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 4.1% unemployment rate

Richmond County, NY

  • 70.1% of income to buy
  • 3.9% underwater
  • 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 4.9% unemployment rate

Kane County, IL

  • 41.2% of income to buy
  • 7.9% underwater
  • 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 4.3% unemployment rate

Madera County, CA

  • 53.0% of income to buy
  • 4.6% underwater
  • 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 6.3% unemployment rate

Will County, IL

  • 40.0% of income to buy
  • 7.1% underwater
  • 0.2% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 4.1% unemployment rate

Kankakee County, IL

  • 27.9% of income to buy
  • 14.6% underwater
  • 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 5.3% unemployment rate

Shasta County, CA

  • 43.5% of income to buy
  • 6.3% underwater
  • 0.1% of properties with foreclosure filings
  • 4.4% unemployment rate

ATTOM Chart on Top 10 Housing Markets Vulnerable  to Declines - Q4 2022

ATTOM’s Q4 2022 special housing risk report considered counties more or less at risk based on the percentage of homes facing possible foreclosure, the portion with mortgage balances that exceeded estimated property values, the percentage of average local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses on median-priced single-family homes and condos, and local unemployment rates.

For this report, the conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the most recent home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports prepared by ATTOM. Unemployment rates came from federal government data. Rankings were based on a combination of those four categories in 581 counties around the U.S. with sufficient data to analyze in Q4 2022. Counties were ranked in each category, from lowest to highest, with the overall conclusion based on a combination of the four ranks.

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