Nevada Leads Nation with Highest Share of Homeowners Likely to Move in Q2 2018
Delaware, Florida, Colorado, Virginia Round Out Top Five ‘Pre-Mover’ States;
Top Investment Property Pre-Mover Markets Led by Memphis, Santa Rosa, Indianapolis
IRVINE, Calif. – May 17, 2018 — ATTOM Data Solutions, curator of the nation’s premier multi-sourced property database, today released its Q1 2018 Pre-Mover Housing Index, which shows that the highest pre-mover index in the first quarter of 2018 — predictive of a high percentage of homeowners moving in the second quarter — was in Nevada (200), followed by Delaware (163), Florida (159), Colorado (154) and Virginia (149).
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag during a quarter to total single family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. An index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 90 days in a given market (see full methodology below).
Metros with highest pre-mover index led by Colorado Springs
Among 118 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for the report, those with the highest pre-mover index were Colorado Springs, Colorado (280); Manchester-Nashua, New Hampshire (213); El Paso, Texas (213); Washington, D.C. (208); and Orlando, Florida (201). Rounding out the top 10 metro areas with the highest pre-mover indices were Tampa-St. Petersburg, Florida (200); Las Vegas, Nevada (199); Charleston, South Carolina (198); Nashville, Tennessee (185); and Jacksonville, Florida (184).
“The pre-mover index provides insight into which markets are poised to see a high percentage of homeowners moving this spring and which markets are likely to see a high percentage of homeowners staying put,” said Daren Blomquist, senior vice president at ATTOM Data Solutions. “Markets with a high pre-mover index tend to be in areas where homes are still somewhat reasonably priced and have a growing job market, allowing for greater upward mobility. Markets with a low pre-mover index tend to be in areas with a struggling job market or with home prices that are out of reach for the average wage earner.”
Metros with lowest pre-mover index led by Cleveland
Among the 118 metropolitan statistical areas analyzed for the report, those with the lowest pre-mover index were Cleveland, Ohio (46); Rochester, New York (48); Boston, Massachusetts (49); Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (51); and Providence, Rhode Island (53). Rounding out the 10 metro areas with the lowest pre-mover index were Detroit, Michigan (54); San Jose, California (60); Naples, Florida (61); Tulsa, Oklahoma (62); and Grand Rapids, Michigan (63).
Counties with highest and lowest pre-mover indexes
Among 314 counties analyzed for the report, those with the highest pre-mover index were Henry County, Georgia in the Atlanta metro area (313); El Paso County, Colorado, in the Colorado Springs metro area (304); Jacksonville County, North Carolina (299); Spotsylvania County, Virginia in the Washington, D.C. metro area (296); and Osceola County, Florida, in the Orlando metro area (291).
Among those same 314 counties, those with the lowest pre-mover index were Erie County, New York, in the Buffalo metro area (34); Sedgwick County, Kansas, in the Wichita metro area (36); San Mateo County, California, in the San Francisco metro area (40); Wayne County, Michigan, in the Detroit metro area (40); and Queens County, New York (42).
The average value of homes sought by pre-movers in the top 10 counties with the highest pre-mover index was $269,766 while the average value of homes sought by pre-movers in the top 10 counties with the lowest pre-mover index was $404,621.
Highest share of investment property pre-movers in Memphis, Santa Rosa, Indianapolis
Nationwide 5.3 percent of all homes with a pre-mover flag in Q1 2018 were being purchased as an investment property. Among the 118 metro areas analyzed for the report, those with the highest share of pre-mover investment properties were Memphis, Tennessee (21.4 percent); Santa Rosa, California (13.9 percent); Indianapolis, Indiana (12.7 percent); Trenton, New Jersey (12.0 percent); and Kansas City, Missouri (10.4 percent).
Highest share of second home pre-movers in Salisbury, Naples, Cape Coral-Fort Myers
Nationwide 3.2 percent of all homes with a pre-mover flag in Q1 2018 were being purchased as a second home. Among the 118 metro areas analyzed for the report, those with the highest share of pre-mover second homes were Salisbury, Maryland (33.3 percent second homes); Naples, Florida (30.4 percent); Cape Coral-Fort Myers (18.8 percent); Myrtle Beach, South Carolina (17.2 percent); and Sarasota, Florida (11.4 percent).
Using data collected from purchase loan applications on residential real estate transactions, the ATTOM Data Solutions Pre-Mover Housing Index is based on the ratio of homes with a “pre-mover” flag to total single family homes and condos in a given geography, indexed off the national average. Any index above 100 is above the national average and indicates an above-average ratio of homes that will likely be sold in the next 30 to 90 days in a given market. Historical pre-mover data going back to Q1 2014 shows that 59 percent of homes with a pre-mover flag sell within 30 days of the estimated loan settlement date that is provided in the pre-mover data, and 76 percent sell within 90 days of that settlement date. The loan application data used for the pre-mover index also includes the intended purpose of the potential purchase: primary residence, secondary (vacation) home, or investment property.
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